Friday, August 12, 2011

Preseason 2011

Mississippi State comes into the 2011 season with very high expectations from fans, players and coaches alike. After a huge finish to the 2010 season with dominating performances against rival Ole Miss and the University of Michigan in the Gator Bowl, everyone is expecting more. With a 4-4 conference record (all four losses being against SEC west opponents), the Bulldogs finished 5th in the west. This ranking doesn't do the team justice with the four higher teams being Auburn (ranked 1 nationally and national champions), LSU (ranked 8), Alabama (ranked 10) and Arkansas (ranked 12). The Bulldogs finished the season at number 15 in the AP Top 25. However, most fans are expecting a better conference record this season.

Mississippi State is currently ranked 20th in the preseason AP Top 25. The Bulldogs' schedule this year is a lot easier than it has been in the fast few years. State's out-of-conference line-up has one FCS opponent and three other Division 1 teams who are all ranked lower than 78th in the preseason poll with Memphis being ranked second to last. This combined with a middle-of-the-road SEC east schedule made up of Kentucky, on-the-fence Georgia, and hit-or-miss South Carolina means that as a worst case scenario, the Bulldogs should end up with no less than 7 wins. In my opinion, a winning season would only come with 9 or 10 wins, with losses to LSU, Alabama, and maybe Arkansas or South Carolina. On the other hand, I think Alabama is overrated, and every year LSU is a close game. I'm not saying that I think this is our year, but I do think we have a shot at 10 wins.

Now the problems. We lost three, in my opinion, all-American linebackers. Yes the transfer from Clemson will help, but this new unit won't be able to meet the level of play of last year's unit. Losing McPhee on the D-line hurts but whether or not the backs and line can pick up the slack for the LB's is going to determine the strength of our defense. As for the offense, can Relf put together a season like the performance he gave in the Gator Bowl? If so, you can expect to see 9 or 10 wins. However, only time will tell whether or not that was a one-game fluke. Our running game should be solid again even with our loses on the O-line.

The positives? Well, our receiving corps should be better than ever, with Bumphis back from injury, older talent in Clark and Smith, and younger talents Johnson and Lewis. Secondly, our defensive backs should have a solid year behind Mitchell. Also, Ballard and Perkins should make our backfield strong again.

So in summary, if our returning starters and up-and-coming freshmen can fill the holes left by last years seniors then Mississippi State could be looking at a 9 or 10 win season. If, however, the loses on the O-line and at linebacker leads to a loss of cohesion for the team, then expect a season with more like 6 wins.

Schedule:
DateOpponentTimeHomePrediction
Sep. 1Memphis7:00pmWin
Sep. 10Auburn11:21amWin
Sep. 15LSU7:00pmYesLoss
Sep. 24Louisiana TechTBAYesWin
Oct. 1GeorgiaTBAWin
Oct. 8UAB11:00amWin
Oct. 15South CarolinaTBAYesLoss
Oct. 29KentuckyTBAWin
Nov. 5Tennessee MartinTBAYesWin
Nov. 12AlabamaTBAYesLoss
Nov. 19ArkansasTBAWin
Nov. 26Ole MissTBAYesWin