OFRS: College Football Rankings: September 2014

Monday, September 29, 2014

OFRS 2014 - Week 5

I'm not very happy about the prediction percentage this week, so I'm probably gonna go back and look at my weightings again.

Prediction Percentage from Week 4
-------------------------------------------
(26-26) 0.5000

Average Conference Ranks
---------------------------------
911 Southeastern 34.50
905 Pac-12 36.50
99001 Independent 44.00
827 Big Ten 48.36
25354 Big 12 51.50
821 Atlantic Coast 53.79
24312 Conference USA 75.85
5486 Mountain West 79.42
823 American Athletic 85.55
875 Mid-American 90.54
818 Sun Belt 92.82

Rankings
-------------------------------------------------
1 UCLA 0.6612 (4-0)
2 Mississippi State 0.6379 (4-0)
3 Georgia Tech 0.5957 (3-0)
4 Oklahoma 0.5928 (4-0)
5 Auburn 0.5828 (4-0)
6 Alabama 0.5826 (4-0)
7 Florida State 0.5737 (3-0)
8 Oregon 0.5697 (3-0)
9 Notre Dame 0.5690 (4-0)
10 TCU 0.5634 (2-0)
11 BYU 0.5599 (3-0)
12 Nebraska 0.5477 (4-0)
13 Texas A&M 0.5304 (4-0)
14 Mississippi 0.5279 (4-0)
15 USC 0.5247 (3-1)
16 Arizona 0.5246 (4-0)
17 Baylor 0.5222 (3-0)
18 Marshall 0.5076 (3-0)
19 LSU 0.4565 (3-1)
20 Maryland 0.4454 (3-1)
21 Colorado State 0.4345 (2-1)
22 Rutgers 0.4333 (3-1)
23 Penn State 0.4312 (4-1)
24 Washington 0.4294 (3-1)
25 Georgia 0.4254 (3-1)
26 Louisville 0.4248 (3-1)
27 California 0.4203 (2-1)
28 North Carolina State 0.4182 (3-1)
29 East Carolina 0.4120 (2-1)
30 Minnesota 0.4093 (2-1)
31 Missouri 0.4061 (3-1)
32 Ohio State 0.4006 (3-1)
33 Iowa 0.3947 (3-1)
34 Nevada 0.3899 (2-1)
35 Air Force 0.3876 (2-1)
36 Utah 0.3871 (2-1)
37 Kansas State 0.3868 (2-1)
38 Florida 0.3866 (2-1)
39 Stanford 0.3780 (2-1)
40 Duke 0.3769 (3-1)
41 Wisconsin 0.3765 (2-1)
42 Northern Illinois 0.3731 (2-1)
43 South Carolina 0.3662 (3-2)
44 Middle Tennessee 0.3564 (2-1)
45 Cincinnati 0.3541 (2-1)
46 Arizona State 0.3509 (2-1)
47 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3475 (3-1)
48 Oregon State 0.3432 (2-1)
49 Boise State 0.3410 (3-2)
50 Pittsburgh 0.3235 (2-2)
51 Temple 0.3207 (2-1)
52 Kentucky 0.3197 (2-1)
53 Virginia Tech 0.3190 (2-2)
54 Boston College 0.3113 (2-2)
55 Virginia 0.3103 (2-2)
56 Texas 0.3020 (2-1)
57 Western Kentucky 0.2855 (2-2)
58 Illinois 0.2842 (2-2)
59 Miami (Florida) 0.2828 (2-2)
60 Michigan State 0.2817 (2-1)
61 Arkansas 0.2682 (2-2)
62 Oklahoma State 0.2642 (1-1)
63 Tennessee 0.2633 (2-2)
64 Wyoming 0.2600 (2-2)
65 Georgia Southern 0.2533 (2-2)
66 Bowling Green 0.2474 (2-2)
67 UTEP 0.2412 (2-2)
68 Iowa State 0.2371 (1-2)
69 Akron 0.2366 (1-2)
70 Louisiana Tech 0.2320 (2-2)
71 Old Dominion 0.2311 (2-2)
72 Toledo 0.2307 (2-2)
73 South Alabama 0.2241 (2-2)
74 Northwestern 0.2240 (1-2)
75 Florida International 0.2228 (1-2)
76 Ohio 0.2222 (2-2)
77 Army 0.2206 (1-2)
78 West Virginia 0.2140 (1-2)
79 Navy 0.2128 (2-3)
80 Colorado 0.2096 (2-3)
81 Michigan 0.2075 (2-3)
82 Memphis 0.2057 (1-2)
83 Indiana 0.1882 (1-2)
84 Clemson 0.1843 (1-2)
85 UTSA 0.1837 (1-2)
86 Buffalo 0.1828 (1-2)
87 Texas State 0.1826 (1-2)
88 Arkansas State 0.1776 (1-2)
89 Tulsa 0.1770 (1-2)
90 UAB 0.1727 (1-2)
91 Texas Tech 0.1702 (1-2)
92 Kansas 0.1605 (1-2)
93 Syracuse 0.1604 (1-2)
94 North Carolina 0.1596 (1-2)
95 Florida Atlantic 0.1593 (1-3)
96 Western Michigan 0.1571 (1-2)
97 Houston 0.1564 (1-2)
98 Washington State 0.1559 (1-3)
99 San Diego State 0.1542 (1-2)
100 South Florida 0.1388 (1-3)
101 New Mexico State 0.1373 (1-3)
102 Utah State 0.1362 (1-2)
103 North Texas 0.1337 (1-2)
104 New Mexico 0.1305 (1-3)
105 Rice 0.1292 (1-3)
106 Southern Mississippi 0.1289 (1-3)
107 Wake Forest 0.1266 (1-3)
108 Purdue 0.1253 (1-3)
109 Fresno State 0.1211 (1-3)
110 Central Michigan 0.1193 (1-3)
111 Vanderbilt 0.1012 (1-4)
112 Appalachian State 0.0000 (0-3)
112 Ball State 0.0000 (0-2)
112 Connecticut 0.0000 (0-4)
112 Eastern Michigan 0.0000 (0-3)
112 Georgia State 0.0000 (0-3)
112 Hawai'i 0.0000 (0-3)
112 Idaho 0.0000 (0-4)
112 Kent State 0.0000 (0-4)
112 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0000 (0-3)
112 Massachusetts 0.0000 (0-5)
112 Miami (Ohio) 0.0000 (0-4)
112 San Jose State 0.0000 (0-3)
112 SMU 0.0000 (0-4)
112 Troy 0.0000 (0-4)
112 Tulane 0.0000 (0-4)
112 UCF 0.0000 (0-2)

112 UNLV 0.0000 (0-4)

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

OFRS 2014 - Week 4

I don't know if I've mentioned it yet, but any teams that share a ranking are automatically listed in alphabetical order. On a more theoretical level, you'll notice that all defeated teams (no wins) have a rating of 0. This is a result of the new calculations that generate team ratings directly from a team's win-loss record. Therefore, if a team has 0 wins, the fraction will always have a zero in the numerator and therefore evaluate to zero regardless of the strength of competition. This is something that I may look into changing in the future.

Prediction Percentage from Week 3
-------------------------------------------
(28-18) 0.6087

Average Conference Ranks
---------------------------------
Pac-12 32.83
Southeastern 34.43
Independent 36.25
Atlantic Coast 51.00
Big Ten 51.93
Big 12 54.00
Conference USA 71.31
American Athletic 75.55
Mountain West 77.42
Mid-American 88.92
Sun Belt 91.36

Rankings
-------------------------------------------------
1 UCLA 0.6709 (3-0)
2 Mississippi State 0.6212 (4-0)
3 Notre Dame 0.5787 (3-0)
4 Georgia Tech 0.5713 (3-0)
5 Auburn 0.5680 (3-0)
6 Utah 0.5665 (2-0)
7 Oklahoma 0.5636 (4-0)
8 Arizona 0.5552 (4-0)
9 Washington 0.5502 (3-0)
10 BYU 0.5337 (3-0)
11 Alabama 0.5296 (4-0)
12 TCU 0.5263 (1-0)
13 Florida State 0.5234 (2-0)
14 Oregon State 0.5219 (2-0)
15 North Carolina State 0.5209 (3-0)
16 Penn State 0.5195 (4-0)
17 Cincinnati 0.5185 (2-0)
18 Arizona State 0.5143 (2-0)
19 Oregon 0.5067 (3-0)
20 Marshall 0.5045 (3-0)
21 Texas A&M 0.4974 (3-0)
22 Mississippi 0.4911 (3-0)
23 Duke 0.4862 (3-0)
24 Baylor 0.4822 (2-0)
25 Nebraska 0.4769 (3-0)
26 USC 0.4707 (2-1)
27 LSU 0.4368 (2-1)
28 South Carolina 0.4181 (3-1)
29 Maryland 0.4053 (2-1)
30 Pittsburgh 0.3939 (2-1)
31 Rutgers 0.3902 (2-1)
32 Boise State 0.3890 (3-1)
33 Louisville 0.3857 (2-1)
34 East Carolina 0.3728 (2-1)
35 Boston College 0.3665 (2-1)
36 Georgia 0.3656 (2-1)
37 Iowa 0.3633 (2-1)
38 Florida 0.3570 (2-1)
39 Missouri 0.3522 (2-1)
40 Illinois 0.3483 (2-1)
41 Arkansas 0.3385 (2-1)
42 Tennessee 0.3364 (2-1)
43 UTEP 0.3270 (2-1)
44 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3230 (2-1)
45 Ohio State 0.3227 (2-1)
46 Old Dominion 0.3179 (2-1)
47 Northern Illinois 0.3169 (2-1)
48 Wyoming 0.3091 (2-1)
49 Louisiana Tech 0.3023 (2-1)
50 Colorado State 0.2951 (1-1)
51 Iowa State 0.2884 (1-1)
52 Tulsa 0.2849 (1-1)
53 Nevada 0.2845 (1-1)
54 Kansas State 0.2824 (1-1)
55 Indiana 0.2755 (1-1)
56 Navy 0.2737 (2-2)
57 Wisconsin 0.2732 (1-1)
58 Colorado 0.2717 (2-2)
59 Michigan 0.2668 (2-2)
60 California 0.2656 (1-1)
61 Texas Tech 0.2622 (1-1)
62 UTSA 0.2589 (1-1)
63 Air Force 0.2587 (1-1)
64 Virginia Tech 0.2566 (1-2)
65 Middle Tennessee 0.2562 (1-1)
66 UAB 0.2540 (1-1)
67 North Carolina 0.2525 (1-1)
68 Memphis 0.2515 (1-1)
69 Minnesota 0.2481 (1-1)
70 Western Michigan 0.2450 (1-1)
71 Kentucky 0.2415 (1-1)
72 Kansas 0.2406 (1-1)
73 Syracuse 0.2368 (1-1)
74 Virginia 0.2361 (1-2)
75 Stanford 0.2318 (1-1)
76 Army 0.2310 (1-2)
77 Temple 0.2200 (1-1)
78 Ohio 0.2180 (2-2)
79 Texas 0.2128 (1-1)
80 West Virginia 0.1925 (1-2)
81 Purdue 0.1865 (1-2)
82 Bowling Green 0.1816 (1-2)
83 Michigan State 0.1802 (1-1)
84 Central Michigan 0.1774 (1-2)
85 Arkansas State 0.1773 (1-2)
86 New Mexico State 0.1769 (1-2)
87 New Mexico 0.1713 (1-2)
88 Southern Mississippi 0.1708 (1-2)
89 South Florida 0.1702 (1-2)
90 Miami (Florida) 0.1697 (1-2)
91 Western Kentucky 0.1621 (1-2)
92 Georgia Southern 0.1618 (1-2)
93 Wake Forest 0.1549 (1-2)
94 Houston 0.1501 (1-2)
95 Toledo 0.1417 (1-2)
96 Utah State 0.1398 (1-2)
97 North Texas 0.1271 (1-2)
98 South Alabama 0.1258 (1-2)
99 Vanderbilt 0.1240 (1-3)
100 Akron 0.0000 (0-2)
100 Appalachian State 0.0000 (0-2)
100 Ball State 0.0000 (0-2)
100 Buffalo 0.0000 (0-2)
100 Clemson 0.0000 (0-2)
100 Connecticut 0.0000 (0-3)
100 Eastern Michigan 0.0000 (0-3)
100 Florida Atlantic 0.0000 (0-3)
100 Florida International 0.0000 (0-2)
100 Fresno State 0.0000 (0-3)
100 Georgia State 0.0000 (0-3)
100 Hawai'i 0.0000 (0-3)
100 Idaho 0.0000 (0-3)
100 Kent State 0.0000 (0-3)
100 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0000 (0-3)
100 Massachusetts 0.0000 (0-4)
100 Miami (Ohio) 0.0000 (0-3)
100 Northwestern 0.0000 (0-2)
100 Oklahoma State 0.0000 (0-1)
100 Rice 0.0000 (0-3)
100 San Diego State 0.0000 (0-2)
100 San Jose State 0.0000 (0-2)
100 SMU 0.0000 (0-3)
100 Texas State 0.0000 (0-2)
100 Troy 0.0000 (0-3)
100 Tulane 0.0000 (0-3)
100 UCF 0.0000 (0-2)
100 UNLV 0.0000 (0-3)

100 Washington State 0.0000 (0-3)

OFRS 2014 - Week 3

Sorry for the delay, I was out of the country all last week. One thing to note of the current rankings is that there are a couple games whose stats have not been updated on the NCAA site that I collect my data from. Therefore, the following games are not included in the current rankings:
Week 2:
Middle Tennessee vs Minnesota
BYU vs Texas
Week 3:
UTSA vs Oklahoma State
Tulsa vs Florida Atlantic

I will include these games into the rankings as soon as they are updated.

Prediction Percentage from Week 2
-------------------------------------------
(29-20) 0.5918

Average Conference Ranks
---------------------------------
99001 Independent 27.50
905 Pac-12 30.83
911 Southeastern 35.79
821 Atlantic Coast 39.43
25354 Big 12 51.40
827 Big Ten 63.43
24312 Conference USA 64.62
5486 Mountain West 70.33
823 American Athletic 71.64
875 Mid-American 74.77
818 Sun Belt 78.45

Rankings
-------------------------------------------------
1 UCLA 0.5996 (3-0)
2 LSU 0.5840 (2-0)
3 Pittsburgh 0.5738 (2-0)
4 Kansas State 0.5659 (1-0)
5 Washington 0.5475 (2-0)
6 Oregon State 0.5422 (1-0)
7 Arizona 0.5340 (3-0)
8 Auburn 0.5317 (2-0)
9 Penn State 0.5260 (3-0)
10 Notre Dame 0.5257 (3-0)
11 Oklahoma 0.5224 (3-0)
12 Florida 0.5211 (2-0)
13 Georgia Tech 0.5186 (2-0)
14 Texas A&M 0.5170 (2-0)
15 California 0.5170 (1-0)
16 Oregon 0.5051 (2-0)
17 Florida State 0.5034 (1-0)
17 TCU 0.5034 (1-0)
18 Cincinnati 0.5011 (1-0)
19 Missouri 0.4995 (2-0)
20 BYU 0.4965 (2-0)
21 North Carolina 0.4937 (1-0)
22 Mississippi State 0.4933 (3-0)
23 Syracuse 0.4893 (1-0)
24 Utah 0.4884 (1-0)
25 Middle Tennessee 0.4871 (1-0)
26 Mississippi 0.4845 (3-0)
27 Arizona State 0.4829 (2-0)
28 North Carolina State 0.4776 (3-0)
29 Northern Illinois 0.4768 (2-0)
30 Alabama 0.4696 (3-0)
31 Marshall 0.4570 (2-0)
32 Duke 0.4560 (2-0)
33 USC 0.4542 (2-1)
34 Baylor 0.4507 (2-0)
35 Nebraska 0.4180 (2-0)
36 Boise State 0.3628 (2-1)
37 Virginia Tech 0.3467 (1-1)
38 Navy 0.3418 (2-1)
39 Michigan 0.3405 (2-1)
40 South Carolina 0.3361 (2-1)
41 Boston College 0.3341 (2-1)
42 Army 0.3231 (1-1)
43 UTEP 0.3215 (2-1)
44 Ohio State 0.3172 (2-1)
45 Virginia 0.3133 (1-1)
46 Louisiana-Monroe 0.3127 (2-1)
47 Tennessee 0.3064 (2-1)
48 Louisiana Tech 0.3012 (2-1)
49 East Carolina 0.2983 (1-1)
50 Colorado State 0.2747 (1-1)
51 UAB 0.2669 (1-1)
52 Central Michigan 0.2652 (1-1)
53 Nevada 0.2611 (1-1)
54 Rutgers 0.2601 (1-1)
55 Tulsa 0.2595 (1-1)
56 Louisville 0.2590 (1-1)
57 Air Force 0.2588 (1-1)
58 New Mexico State 0.2567 (1-1)
59 Illinois 0.2554 (1-1)
60 Western Michigan 0.2541 (1-1)
61 Wyoming 0.2527 (1-1)
62 Arkansas 0.2481 (1-1)
63 UTSA 0.2445 (1-1)
64 Iowa State 0.2426 (1-1)
65 Texas Tech 0.2412 (1-1)
66 Miami (Florida) 0.2393 (1-1)
67 Bowling Green 0.2379 (1-1)
68 Georgia 0.2345 (1-1)
69 Stanford 0.2224 (1-1)
70 Kentucky 0.2216 (1-1)
71 Temple 0.2139 (1-1)
72 Iowa 0.2113 (1-1)
73 Maryland 0.2108 (1-1)
74 West Virginia 0.2089 (1-1)
75 Texas 0.2003 (1-1)
76 Old Dominion 0.1938 (1-1)
77 Utah State 0.1836 (1-1)
78 Purdue 0.1798 (1-2)
79 South Alabama 0.1781 (1-1)
80 Western Kentucky 0.1648 (1-2)
81 Vanderbilt 0.1449 (1-2)
82 Colorado 0.1445 (1-2)
83 North Texas 0.1222 (1-2)
84 Ohio 0.1212 (1-2)
85 Akron 0.0000 (0-1)
85 Appalachian State 0.0000 (0-1)
85 Arkansas State 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Ball State 0.0000 (0-1)
85 Buffalo 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Clemson 0.0000 (0-1)
85 Connecticut 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Eastern Michigan 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Florida Atlantic 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Florida International 0.0000 (0-1)
85 Fresno State 0.0000 (0-3)
85 Georgia Southern 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Georgia State 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Hawai'i 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Houston 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Idaho 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Indiana 0.0000 (0-1)
85 Kansas 0.0000 (0-1)
85 Kent State 0.0000 (0-3)
85 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Massachusetts 0.0000 (0-3)
85 Memphis 0.0000 (0-1)
85 Miami (Ohio) 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Michigan State 0.0000 (0-1)
85 Minnesota 0.0000 (0-1)
85 New Mexico 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Northwestern 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Oklahoma State 0.0000 (0-1)
85 Rice 0.0000 (0-2)
85 San Diego State 0.0000 (0-1)
85 San Jose State 0.0000 (0-1)
85 SMU 0.0000 (0-2)
85 South Florida 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Southern Mississippi 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Texas State 0.0000 (0-1)
85 Toledo 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Troy 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Tulane 0.0000 (0-2)
85 UCF 0.0000 (0-2)
85 UNLV 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Wake Forest 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Washington State 0.0000 (0-2)
85 Wisconsin 0.0000 (0-1)