OFRS 2012 - Week 4

Week 4 rankings are up. Again we see the benefit of having played fewer games in the fact that Oregon State has jumped Alabama for the number one spot. Expect their rank to drop as they catch up with the number of games of the other schools. Other rank movements of note are: West Virginia has moved into the top 5 from 9 last week; Kansas St. moved to 14 from 29 after defeating Oklahoma, who dropped from 18 to 43 because of the loss; Arizona dropped 11 ranks to 19 after losing to Oregon.

As the stats analysis shows below, there has been a steady increase in both the number of matching teams in the top 25 and the number of games correctly predicted by the ranks.
Matching teams weeks 1-4: 8-13-17-18
Game prediction percentage weeks 2-3: 55%-66%-75%

I will display graphs of these analyses at the end of the season.

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKING SYSTEM
Compiled by: Sean Owens | Year: 2012 | Week: 4

AVERAGE RANKS BY CONFERENCE
ACC	55.83		Conference USA	96.92		Pacific-12	47.42
Big 12	29.70		Independents	79.00		SEC	42.71
Big East	56.12		Mid-American	80.23		Sun Belt	82.30
Big Ten	45.83		Mountain West	82.50		WAC	63.86

 1) No. of top 25 teams also in the top 25 in the AP Top 25:
  18
 2) No. of top 25 teams with the same rank as in the AP Top 25:
  1 [Florida]
 3) Average distance in rank from OFRS top 25 to the AP Top 25:
  10.64
 4) Percentage games predicted correctly from previous week's ranks:
  37-12 (75.51%)

TEAM RANKINGS
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Prev. Rank
1	Oregon St.	1.9397985585227115	2-0	2
2	Alabama	1.886070775433545	4-0	1
3	Stanford	1.8820221101888979	3-0	4
4	Texas Tech	1.8526847545967835	3-0	13
5	West Virginia	1.839983602770876	3-0	9
6	Texas	1.8175990098137254	3-0	12
7	Notre Dame	1.8171783744265424	4-0	6
8	Oregon	1.8111626237770921	4-0	7
9	Ohio	1.789598117422456	4-0	17
10	Florida St.	1.774976190057578	4-0	10
11	Florida	1.7600421825570611	4-0	11
12	Iowa St.	1.7561232583463158	3-0	3
13	Mississippi St.	1.7113550687264742	4-0	5
14	Kansas St.	1.6700401161896758	4-0	29
15	Cincinnati	1.6653417653584754	2-0	26
16	Minnesota	1.6463467912856133	4-0	19
17	LSU	1.6431758491316875	4-0	15
18	Georgia	1.5764295050380672	4-0	14
19	Arizona	1.571988081285264	3-1	8
20	Baylor	1.560702486558216	3-0	16
21	Rutgers	1.556775883878961	4-0	20
22	Northwestern	1.5565694171929427	4-0	21
23	South Carolina	1.5556719663209537	4-0	25
24	Ohio St.	1.5487562428535357	4-0	22
25	Louisville	1.536654121589248	4-0	28
26	Clemson	1.5311476158793211	3-1	24
27	Arizona St.	1.5308301987315494	3-1	33
28	Michigan St.	1.53065767575049	3-1	31
29	TCU	1.5267029650903883	3-0	30
30	UCLA	1.5232922538689355	3-1	23
31	UTSA	1.508595306583301	4-0	37
32	Louisiana Tech	1.4850098948755328	3-0	43
33	Tennessee	1.4776602417815345	3-1	49
34	North Carolina St.	1.4772594049608578	3-1	57
35	Washington	1.47078386454461	2-1	34
36	Ole Miss	1.469410642217118	3-1	38
37	Purdue	1.4663619014734053	2-1	44
38	Miami (FL)	1.4552310619868252	3-1	50
39	Wisconsin	1.443086071457531	3-1	27
40	Tulsa	1.4374954818153445	3-1	66
41	San Jose St.	1.431534864432944	3-1	48
42	Southern California	1.4254708294548086	3-1	42
43	Oklahoma	1.424658549267681	2-1	18
44	Texas A&M	1.4231455363187375	2-1	52
45	Wake Forest	1.4202776816267935	3-1	46
46	Western Ky.	1.4151731045032427	3-1	35
47	Boise St.	1.4064185738471644	2-1	90
48	Nebraska	1.4007129347566263	3-1	58
49	Missouri	1.39892706444686	2-2	40
50	Pittsburgh	1.3894236917048708	2-2	67
51	Ball St.	1.3711758054254772	3-1	54
52	Duke	1.362087629694501	3-1	55
53	Texas St.	1.3585102559802764	2-1	70
54	Michigan	1.3570792139144672	2-2	36
55	Utah St.	1.356906649167651	3-1	47
56	New Mexico	1.356068391896836	2-2	78
57	La.-Lafayette	1.3550946440606504	2-1	63
58	Oklahoma St.	1.3533123117787822	2-1	41
59	Toledo	1.351293962889173	3-1	56
60	Marshall	1.3467480988665244	2-2	71
61	Nevada	1.3335648472687864	3-1	72
62	UCF	1.332236956429243	2-1	51
63	Kent St.	1.3128825817607235	2-1	91
64	Central Mich.	1.309788980715074	2-1	95
65	North Carolina	1.282411719147284	2-2	87
66	Indiana	1.2820687542520979	2-1	64
67	Virginia Tech	1.2786719337433121	3-1	83
68	Iowa	1.2744265234199372	2-2	32
69	Northern Ill.	1.2681210874439766	3-1	75
70	Fresno St.	1.2591527082548772	2-2	59
71	Penn St.	1.2525882637011538	2-2	103
72	South Fla.	1.2394527280438454	2-2	45
73	Western Mich.	1.238344864620468	2-2	93
74	Virginia	1.2373131308648173	2-2	60
75	Syracuse	1.2215193203750503	1-3	74
76	San Diego St.	1.2176881712973586	2-2	61
77	Illinois	1.2092072889361984	2-2	73
78	Arkansas St.	1.2084579020343094	2-2	100
79	Troy	1.2002006709432198	2-2	89
80	Utah	1.192619620611245	2-2	39
81	South Ala.	1.1763697601026395	1-3	106
82	Kentucky	1.166909006569549	1-3	88
83	Middle Tenn.	1.166823955880203	2-1	69
84	Georgia Tech	1.1623403391394909	2-2	53
85	Maryland	1.1575132434152007	2-2	80
86	Auburn	1.1331257838749624	1-3	65
87	Connecticut	1.1249653853132981	2-2	68
88	Vanderbilt	1.109968741324851	1-3	82
89	Miami (OH)	1.090091341957748	2-2	110
90	Boston College	1.0890483728606468	1-2	98
91	North Texas	1.0850979268678334	1-3	86
92	BYU	1.0817259685514584	2-2	62
93	East Carolina	1.0787672462305649	2-2	79
94	Fla. Atlantic	1.0704843962920962	1-3	111
95	Wyoming	1.0653976453374536	1-3	109
96	Arkansas	1.0590317867788939	1-3	76
97	Navy	1.0554747484398739	1-2	115
98	SMU	1.0526264936572451	1-2	99
99	Hawaii	1.0293339024655592	1-2	92
100	Buffalo	1.0278029757029932	1-2	85
101	Colorado St.	1.0212990364553547	1-3	104
102	California	1.0103395517105427	1-3	105
103	Washington St.	1.0087093821914082	2-2	81
104	Temple	1.0072382540087341	1-2	77
105	FIU	1.0018974349285596	1-3	108
106	Kansas	0.9933145966570497	1-3	97
107	UNLV	0.9820935491273527	1-3	116
108	UTEP	0.9520337102039499	1-3	94
109	La.-Monroe	0.95192276922959	1-2	102
110	Bowling Green	0.9440847509917848	1-3	107
111	Rice	0.9377387059725975	1-3	96
112	New Mexico St.	0.9267587087193557	1-3	101
113	Air Force	0.9181696870168976	1-2	84
114	Akron	0.8629946986494503	1-3	112
115	UAB	0.8143086597690592	0-3	117
116	Houston	0.7906390432733512	0-3	113
117	Tulane	0.7829024555975042	0-3	114
118	Eastern Mich.	0.7704239328154324	0-4	118
119	Colorado	0.7558551429641382	1-3	123
120	Army	0.6851603642679862	0-3	120
121	Southern Miss.	0.6583541203671904	0-3	122
122	Memphis	0.6349394515353829	0-4	124
123	Idaho	0.6296695982848661	0-4	119
124	Massachusetts	0.5617474384898565	0-4	121